Changing landscape of Irish politics
The traditional divide in Irish politics, south of the border, appears to be coming to an end with the continuing rise of Sinn Fein as a major player expected to make more gains in future elections. Having experienced what Mary Lou MacDonald defined as “something of a revolution” at the ballot box in the General Election of February 2020, Sinn Fein have not just consolidated that support but are continually increasing it.
The latest Irish Times poll provided in a screenshot below shows support for Sinn Fein at a record high figure of 36%, with the former rivals, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, together amassing a record low of 38%. Thirty years ago in the Irish General Election of February 1992, the Fianna Fail party led by Albert Reynolds attained 39.1% of the vote whilst Fine Gael under John Bruton gained 24.5%. That election too was characterised by the shock of the Irish Labour Party led by Dick Spring increasing their vote by more than double to a notable 19.3%. Today though that same Labour Party vote stands at just 4%, leaving 1992’s three big parties on a combined total of around 42%.
This is a remarkable transformation from the days of Irish politics being defined by divides established since the times of the Irish Civil War. If these figures come to pass in actual voting terms, this modernised and progressive Sinn Fein party would surely assume a place at the table of government after the next general election.
For the current coalition partners to try and deny them such a place would surely be as much of an affront to democracy as the Democratic Unionist Party’s refusal to go into government at present north of the border. Much as they may not want to face the reality of this changing landscape in Irish politics, the parties in power are going to have to confront the new reality of a three-party rather than two-party system in the state, in the sense that where third parties emerged previously they never topped the polls in such a resounding manner. There is every reason now to believe that the next Taoiseach, even on a rotating basis, will be from Sinn Fein.
Such a scenario is also likely to give greater impetus to the demand for a border poll at some point in this decade. Possibly too, reactions to that and subsequent results will be shaped by Sinn Fein’s ability to make the move from a party of protest to a party of government, which the Irish Labour Party failed to do in the 1990s - hence returning Irish politics to a two-party state through much of the Celtic Tiger boom times.
These days are very different to those times and many aspects of life in today’s Ireland have been shaped by the mismanagement of the economy in that era. The cost of living crisis, soaring rents, predatory capitalism lurking at every corner and a disconnect between the politicians in power and the people on the ground have helped fuel the rise of Sinn Fein. The question now is when, not if, they get to try and steer their society, their economy and the shared future of their whole island in a very different direction to what has gone before.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/spotlight/arid-40222064.html (requires subscription)
